With three playoff spots already locked up by RCB, GT and SRH, the battle for the last remaining berth has narrowed down to five teams. Rajasthan Royals In the best position, Punjab Kings still control most of their fortunes, while Kolkata Knight Riders, Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings Both victory and external help are needed.With only seven league games remaining, every result now directly changes the equation for someone else.
Rajasthan Royals: One win might have been enough, but two sealed it
RR are in the strongest position in the chasing pack as they have two matches left and are already on 12 points. Wins against Lucknow Supergiants and Mumbai Indians would take them to 16 points, which would almost certainly guarantee qualification regardless of other results.The big question is whether one win in two can still be enough. If RR beat LSG in Jaipur, they move to 14 and immediately put pressure on PBKS, KKR, DC and CSK, none of whom can comfortably afford another defeat.In this scenario, RR would like to:
- PBKS will lose at least one of their remaining matches against LSG.
- KKR will drop one of their two matches against MI or DC.
- DC to lose to KKR.
- CSK will lose to GT.
The ideal RR scenario is that they claim two wins and reach 16 points, thereby putting every other team in contention, regardless of their results.There is a wave of concern for Rajasthan. They have lost four of their last five matches and their NRR of 0.027 offers little cushion if multiple teams finish on 14 points. A heavy defeat in any of the remaining games could drag them into dangerous territory.
Punjab Kings: Beat LSG and hope the chaos continues behind them.
PBKS sit on 13 points from 13 games, which makes their equation look deceptively simple: Beat LSG in Lucknow and they move to 15 points.This number can be enough as none of KKR, DC or CSK can get more than 15. But PBKS is in danger if RR manage to win two of their remaining two games. Also, due to both form and scheduling, PBKS walks a fine line. They have lost five straight games and will be playing after several direct rivals have already completed their fixtures.Best case scenario for PBKS:
- Defeated LSG.
- RR have lost at least one of their two matches.
- KKR failed to win both the matches
- DC win vs KKR by a close margin
- CSK lost to GT.
However, a loss to LSG almost certainly ends PBKS’s campaign. They will remain on 13, a tally RR and CSK can trail with a win, and KKR can cross with two wins.
Five teams are in the fray to grab the final IPL 2026 playoff spot (Image generated by AI)
Chennai Super Kings: Hung on math more than pace.
CSK’s loss to SRH has left them needing the most improbable combination of results among teams still mathematically alive.They are on 12 points from 13 matches and can only reach 14 with a win against GT in Ahmedabad.But 14 alone is unlikely to be enough unless everything else breaks in their favor.For CSK to have a real chance, they need to.:
- Defeat the GT.
- RR to lose both remaining games and stay at 12
- PBKS will lose to LSG and remain at 13.
- KKR lost at least one match and finished 13 or below.
- DC will lose to KKR and stay on 12.
It’s already a narrow path, and yet pure run-rate can complicate matters. CSK’s NRR of -0.016 is better than DC and marginally better than KKR, but not strong enough to feel comfortable if more than one team finishes at 14.The biggest problem for CSK is that they are no longer able to completely control the range of the opposing teams. RR can still reach 16, PBKS 15 and KKR 15.
Kolkata Knight Riders: Two wins or nothing.
Apart from RR, KKR are the only other team in the chasing group with two games remaining. Sitting on 11 points from 12 games, they simply cannot afford to lose.Wins against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals will take KKR to 15 points. Anything less kills them.But even two wins cannot settle matters completely. KKR’s qualification prospects are highly correlated with the work of RR and PBKS.The ideal KKR scenario looks like this.:
- KKR beat MI and DC.
- RR lose at least one of their remaining two matches.
- PBKS lost to LSG and remained at 13
- GT beat CSK.
If all this happens, KKR will finish on 15 and likely occupy the fourth spot.There is also a scenario where KKR’s final is tied with PBKS at 15. In this case, net run rate decides the final position. KKR’s current NRR of -0.038 means they can’t just scrape by with victories. Margins can be significant.What helps KKR is pace. Unlike others around them, they have won four of their last five games and suddenly look like peaking at the right time.
Delhi Capitals: Beat KKR and pray for a drop elsewhere.
DC’s equation is the toughest among the realistic contenders as they have only one match left and a low net run rate.On 12 points from 13 games, even a win over KKR takes them to just 14. This means Delhi cannot qualify on their own terms.To qualify for DC, they need:
- Defeated KKR.
- RR have to lose the remaining two matches and stay on 12.
- PBKS will lose to LSG and remain at 13.
- CSK will lose to GT.
But still, NRR can be a big factor. DC’s current NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the weakest of all contenders. If qualification comes to a tie on points, Delhi is almost certainly the underdog.Ironically, DC could still have a huge role in deciding the playoff race even if they don’t qualify. A win over KKR knocks Kolkata out and potentially opens the door for RR or PBKS. Meanwhile, a defeat could send KKR straight.
