Ohne Worde! Sometimes, if the proverb is changed a bit, just two words can be enough to paint the picture. Or, perhaps given the context, ‘no words’ are needed!Over a period of four years, Bild, the raunchy, opinionated and hugely popular tabloid newspaper in Germany, carried two banner headlines on its front page with the same two words – ‘Ohne Worte’, which means no word or soundless in German. The first — published on 9 July 2014 — ran across a jubilant Toni Kroos lofted by Sami Khedira against the backdrop of a 7-1 scoreline as Germany moved closer to lifting world football’s ultimate crown for a fourth time, leaving Brazil to carry the burden of ‘present’ forever. Four years later — on June 28, 2018 — the tabloid ran the same headline that again framed Cruise, but this time, the German veteran was standing by himself, hands on hips and looking defeated. The ‘0-2’ scoreline in the background was self-explanatory — Germany, the defending world champions, crashed out in the group stage with a stunning loss to South Korea, with both goals conceded in stoppage time.In a theater as grandiose as the World Cup, surprises often reveal themselves unapologetically. A Germany that showed its enviable culture of planning, strength and a fiery team spirit en route to the coveted prize at the Maracana now looks out of sorts at Russia’s Kazan Arena, facing a situation that has made it so disastrous. Manuel Neuer, hailed for giving new meaning to the concept of a sweep keeper four years ago, was the subject of derision for the way he left his area, drove to the Korean box, lost possession and allowed Son Heung-min to score his side’s second goal.
Football and its ‘peripetia’ moments
From suffering to salvation, the game constantly reinvents itself. This sudden and rapid reversal of fortune is what Aristotle referred to as ‘peripeteia’. In modern football, we call this the ‘winner’s curse’.In the long, storied history of the World Cup, only twice have champions defended their crown. When Italy did it in 1938, the third World Cup was a straight four-game knockout tournament and they won by defeating Hungary 4-2 in the final. In 1962, Brazil overcame Pele’s early injury with Garrincha’s genius before beating Czechoslovakia 3-1 in the title decider.In the 15 editions since then, seven teams have come to lay their hands on the trophy but none have been able to retain it. Argentina (1990), Brazil (1998) and France (2022) came closest to bucking the trend but it remains a so far story for them.France’s title defense in 2002 was so disastrous that FIFA eventually ended the automatic qualification rights of the 2006 and subsequent title holders. Italy, traditionally slow starters at the World Cup, struggled in 2010 and exited the group stage with two draws and one loss.Similar to their title-winning run in 2010, Spain opened their campaign four years later with a defeat – a shock 1-5 defeat by the Netherlands. La Roja’s fate was soon sealed with another loss to Chile next. And Germany – proud to be the ‘Turniermannschaft’ or team of the tournament – crashed out at the group stage in 2018.
An important event
Why do the defending champions falter so spectacularly four years after scaling the peak?Taking into account the teams’ historical performance and ranking data, a model published by the famous investment bank Goldman Sachs has significantly reduced Argentina’s chances of defending the title thanks to the ‘winner shortage’ effect – the tendency of a reigning champion to underperform at the next World Cup.Four years is a long time and the ‘what happened there’ element often has a shelf life of its own. However, any understanding of such an unusual phenomenon is more nuanced and multifaceted. In the information age, a winning team immediately becomes the object of discrimination by its opponents. Spain’s Tiki-taka or Joaquim Loew, led by Vicente del Bosque in 2014, took over Germany’s high-line swift combination style in 2018, partly because the core of the team had aged and partly because rivals had studied more clearly and were better prepared to challenge them.There is also a paradox at play here called the innovation dilemma because coaches refuse to stray from what has led to success in a project. Italy, Spain and Germany returned to defend the World Cup with the same managers, and yet, rather than betting on the unproven, they came to benefit from almost the same tried and trusted formula that had worked for them before.so, Zainuddin ZidaneThe biggest of his tenure was a shadow of his past for France in 2002 when he missed the first two games through injury. A more sluggish Xavi and Iniesta failed to recreate the 2010 magic against faster teams in Brazil, with Del Bosque and Lowe’s decision to bank on world-beaters, as well as ignoring the hungry youngsters who won the Confederations Cup the year before, backfired in Russia.Add to this the effects of psychological burnout. As Juergen Klinsmann once said: “For any team that has won the World Cup, it goes through so much stress, so much work, stress and exhaustion that it is almost impossible to repeat.”This will bring our attention back to the two Lionels in the Argentine camp. Can manager Scaloni, who has decided to include 17 of the 26 players from his 2022 world-winning squad, go where the likes of Marcelo Lippi, Del Bosque and Lowe have failed? Can Messi, at 38 and with his body now showing signs of wear, recreate a sense of déjà vu in America?The world will look up to them with hope and an unkind history will stand in their way.
