RCB Qualifies For Playoffs; The chances of DC increase. (Image credit: IPL)
With 8 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB have qualified and GT can only miss the net run rate route while SRH will have to do very badly not to make the playoffs from here. CSK and RR are a little less likely to finish in the top four in terms of points, even jointly. The odds of PBKS are about one in three. KKR and DC have improved their chances with wins over the weekend, but they lag behind the rest.There are now 256 possible combinations of outcomes, so nothing is certain yet for any of the seven remaining in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- RCB are now certain to qualify and at least be level with No. 1 on points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH.
- GT are assured of a top-four finish on points, but could still miss out on the playoffs. It could be through a four-way tie for second with SRH, CSK and RR on 16 points. Their net run rate is currently the best among these four teams.
- SRH have an 87.9% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and a 50% chance of finishing in the top two.
- CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are now 44.9% and they have a 25% chance of finishing second with one to three other teams.
- RR’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are at 44.5% after Sunday’s loss and they have a 9.4% chance of finishing in a top two tied with two or three other teams.
- With Sunday’s loss, PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four slots on points drop to 35.2% and they can no longer hope to tie for either of the top two slots.
- After Sunday’s win, DC’s chances of making the last four alone or jointly are now at 19.5%, but they also can no longer tie for the top two slots.
- KKR’s chances of making it to the last four alone or jointly are now 18% but unlike PBKS and DC they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 256 possible combinations of outcomes and 8 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, RCB finished at No. 1 on points in all 256 possible combinations of match results, some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.
