New Delhi: With 7 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB, GT and SRH have now qualified. RR is ranked best among others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but their chances are slim. There are now 128 possible combinations of outcomes, so nothing is certain yet for any of the remaining five in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- RCB are now certain to qualify and at least be level with No. 1 on points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH.
- SRH’s win against CSK on Monday means that both SRH and GT have qualified and the chances of both of them at least tying for the second spot are a healthy 75%.
- RR have a 43.8% chance of finishing in the top four on points and could still end up in a three-way tie for second with SRH and GT, but only a 6.3% chance.
- PBKS can at best finish fourth (28.1% chance) or tie for fourth with KKR (10.9%).
- KKR’s chances of making it to the last four alone or jointly are now 20.3% and if they tie for the last slot it will be with PBKS.
- DC’s chances of making the final four alone or jointly are now 18.8%. Their best case is only fourth (3.1%).
- CSK’s best case after Monday’s loss is fourth with RR or DC or both and even that is only a 14.1% chance.
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 128 possible combinations of outcomes and 7 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, RCB finished at No. 1 on points in all 128 possible combinations of match results, some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.
