With six games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs while RCB, GT and SRH have qualified. RR is ranked best among others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but their chances are slim. There are now 64 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the remaining five in the race who have not qualified. We look at the possibilities:
- RCB are now certain to qualify and at least tie with No. 1 on points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH.
- SRH and GT have also qualified and both have a healthy 75% chance of at least tying for second place.
- Tuesday’s win boosts RR’s chances of finishing in the top four on points to 68.8% and they could still end up in a three-way tie for second with SRH and GT, with a 12.5% chance.
- PBKS can at best finish fourth (18.8% chance) or tie for fourth with KKR (6.3%).
- KKR’s chances of making it to the last four alone or jointly are now 12.5 percent and if they tie for the last slot, it will be with PBKS.
- DC’s chances of making it to the last four on points are also at 12.5% but if they get it, it will tie with RR or KRR and CSK.
- CSK’s best case is 4th with RR or KRR and DC and even that is only a 9.4% chance.
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 64 possible combinations of outcomes and 6 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, RCB finished at No. 1 on points in all 64 possible combinations of match results, some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.
