CSK’s chances have gone down with Friday’s loss and KKR and DC’s chances are slim. There are 1,024 possible combinations of outcomes left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- Despite their loss on Saturday, GT are assured of a top-four finish on points (although they could tie with four other teams), and their chances of finishing first or second, singly or jointly, are pretty high at 80.5%.
- RCB have a 99.6% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and an 86.3% chance of finishing in the top two.
- SRH have an 82% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and a 47.3% chance of finishing in the top two.
- RR’s chances of finishing in the top four slots on points have increased to 59.1% and they have a 26.6% chance of occupying one of the top two slots.
- PBKS has a 50.2% chance of finishing in the top four in points but only a 14.1% chance of finishing in the top two.
- CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are now 34.8% and they have only 19.5% chances of finishing in the top two.
- A win on Saturday boosts KKR’s chances of making the last four but they are down to just 10% and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
- DC’s hopes of making the playoffs are a paltry 6.1 percent. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two slots.
How we approach the possibilities: There are 1,024 possible combinations of results and 10 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, GT finished in the top four on points in all 1,024 possible combinations of match results, which translates to a 100% chance of finishing in the top four purely on points, but since some of these include ties they are still not guaranteed to qualify.
