With 14 games left in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of playoff contention and DC are barely hanging in there. GT have almost qualified while RCB and SRH will have to do very badly not to make it to the playoffs from here. PBKS is also well positioned to go there. CSK and RR have a better chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR have little chance. There are 16,384 possible combinations of outcomes left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the possibilities:Tuesday’s win almost ensures GT will finish in the top four in points with a 99.6% chance of them finishing first or second, alone or jointly, at an impressive 84.5%. RCB have an 88.1% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points (including possible ties for one or more of those spots) and a 59% chance of finishing in the top two. Tuesday’s loss means that SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points have dropped to 76.8% and they have only a 35.5% chance of finishing in the top two. PBKS has a 64.5% chance of finishing in the top four in points and only a 28.8% chance of finishing in the top two. At 53.9%, CSK have an even better chance of finishing in the top four but only a 22% chance of finishing in the top two. RR have a slightly lower 53.8% chance of finishing in the top four and only an 18.2% chance of occupying one of the top two slots. KKR have a slim 12.8% chance of making it to the last four but can now finish in the top two on points, albeit with only a 3.6% chance. D.C. keeps its hopes of making the playoffs alive, but with just a 3.2 percent chance. At best they could finish third, anywhere between two and three other teams. How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 16,384 possible combinations of outcomes and 14 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, GT finished in the top four in 16,324 of the possible combinations of match results, giving a 99.6% chance of being in the top four either singly or jointly.
