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New Delhi: With 11 games left in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT can only miss the net run rate route and RCB have almost qualified while SRH will have to do very badly not to make the playoffs from here. RR have a better than even chance while PBKS have the potential to finish in the top four in terms of points, even if joint. CSK’s chances have gone down with Friday’s loss and KKR and DC’s chances are slim. There are 2,048 possible combinations of outcomes left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- GT is assured of a top four finish in points (although they could tie with four other teams), and their chances of finishing first or second alone or jointly are an impressive 90.2%.
- RCB have a 99.4% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and an 83.4% chance of finishing in the top two.
- SRH have an 82.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and a 38.9% chance of finishing in the top two.
- PBKS has a 50.3% chance of finishing in the top four in points, but only a 9.8% chance of finishing in the top two.
- CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four on points have dropped to 35.9% after Friday’s loss and they have just 11.1% chances of finishing in the top two.
- RR’s chances of finishing in the top four slots on points have improved to 60.4% and they have a 19.9% chance of occupying one of the top two slots.
- KKR now have a mere 5.1% chance of making it to the last four and can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
- DC’s hopes of making the playoffs are a paltry 6.1 percent. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two slots.
How we approach the possibilities: There are 2,048 possible combinations of results and 11 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, GT finished in the top four on points in all 2,048 possible combinations of match results, which is a 100% chance of finishing in the top four purely on points, but since some of these include ties they are still not guaranteed to qualify.
