The race for a playoff spot in the IPL 2026 final has been reduced to four teams after Gujarat Titans thrashed Chennai Super Kings by 89 runs in Ahmedabad to officially knock CSK out of contention and almost secure a top-two spot for themselves.The three teams that have already been confirmed for the playoffs are Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad, while the battle for the last remaining berth is now between the two. Rajasthan RoyalsPunjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Capitals.
GT almost locked in a top-two finish, with RCB and SRH battling for the remaining spot
GT’s emphatic win took them to 18 points with an NRR of +0.695, but it was still not enough to overtake table toppers RCB’s NRR. RCB take on SRH for their final league game today and they just need to avoid a crushing defeat to maintain their top position against SRH in Hyderabad. A win would take them to 20 points and punch their ticket to Qualifier 1. However, SRH have everything to play for despite their qualification. For GT to leapfrog and secure a place in Qualifier 1 (top-to-finish), they will need an extraordinary margin of victory against RCB. If they bat first, they will need to win by around 87-89 runs, depending on RCB’s first innings score of 180-240. If chasing, they may need to reach the target in less than 12 overs.
RR leads for last playoff spot
RR remain favorites to grab the final playoff berth. Currently on 14 points with a game remaining against MI, who finish on Sunday, RR know that a win at Wankhede will seal qualification on 16 points, as none of the teams remaining in contention can reach 16 points. The schedule strengthens their position. By the time RR take on MI on Sunday afternoon, they will already know the results of LSG vs PBKS, with PBKS being their closest rivals for the final playoff spot. The ideal scenario for RR is straightforward:
- defeated MI.
- PBKS lost to LSG.
- DC beat KKR.
Risk to RR is their modest NRR of +0.083. A heavy defeat to MI coupled with a win by PBKS or KKR could still complicate matters. In this scenario, RR would be stuck on 14 points, PBKS and KKR would go on 15 and the higher NRR final playoff spot would be decided between the two teams. RR’s loss will be beneficial for both KKR and DC as they will know exactly what they have to do to secure the last spot in the final league fixture of IPL 2026.
PBKS need to beat LSG and hope RR stumbles.
PBKS survives despite five consecutive defeats. A win over already eliminated LSG would take PBKS to 15 points, which could still be good enough for fourth place. This will make Sunday’s two fixtures virtual knockouts for both RR and KKR. However, PBKS’ biggest hope is for MI to upset RR. If RR win and go to 16, PBKS cannot finish above them.If PBKS wins, and RR loses, Punjab Kings will watch KKR vs DC closely. Since those two teams are directly facing each other, a KKR win will complicate matters for PBKS, but a DC win will mean that PBKS will be successful. PBKS at least have a healthy NRR lead over RR and KKR, meaning the tie on points could still go in their favour.Their equation:
- Defeated LSG.
- Hope RR lose to MI.
- Hope DC beat KKR.
KKR face a virtual knockout against DC.
KKR kept themselves alive by beating MI earlier in the week and now sit on 13 points with a game to play. Their final league clash against DC has effectively become a knockout game.A win takes KKR to 15 points and keeps them alive. A defeat destroys them.But even if KKR beat DC, they still need RR to lose against MI. If RR win and reach 16, KKR cannot catch them.KKR would also prefer PBKS to lose against LSG as the possibility of PBKS reaching 15 would bring NRR into the picture.On the plus side for KKR, their NRR has finally turned positive at +0.011 after MI’s victory, giving them at least a fighting chance of a tie on points.Their equation:
- Hopefully PBKS will lose to LSG.
- Hope RR lose to MI.
- Hit the DC
Hanging from a DC thread.
DC survives mathematically but is perhaps the most difficult task. Their NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the worst among the contenders, meaning ties on points are unlikely to help them.To survive, DC have to beat KKR in the last league game. This takes them to 14 points.But still, they would still need: RR to lose to MI and PBKS to lose to LSGEven in this scenario, DC may require a large NRR swing by margin.In fact, DC likely needs:
- A big win over KKR
- RR to lose weight
- PBKS is to lose.
Any lack of this would probably end their campaign.
