PBKS’s prospects are down after Thursday’s loss. KKR and DC have very few chances really. There are 4,096 possible combinations of outcomes left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- GT has a 99.9% chance of finishing in the top four in points (including possible ties), and their chances of finishing first or second individually or jointly are an impressive 79.1%.
- RCB have a 99.3% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and an 81.9% chance of finishing in the top two.
- SRH have a 79.7% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and a 36% chance of finishing in the top two.
- Thursday’s loss to MI means PBKS’s chances of finishing in the top four on points have taken a serious hit and they have dropped to 43.8% and now have a mere 8.3% chance of finishing in the top two.
- At 56.3%, CSK have a better-than-even chance of finishing in the top four but only a 22.2% chance of finishing in the top two.
- RR has a slightly higher 57% chance of finishing in the top four but only a 17.9% chance of occupying one of the top two slots.
- KKR now have a mere 3.7% chance of making it to the last four and can’t even tie for the top two slots anymore.
- DC’s hopes of making the playoffs are up to 4.2 percent. At best they can finish fourth between two and three other teams.
How we approach the possibilities: There are 4,096 possible combinations of results and 12 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, DC only made the top four in 172 of the possible combinations of match results, which translates to a mere 4.2% chance of being in the top four, and that too jointly, not alone.
