New Delhi: Over the years, football fans have been trying all kinds of methods to predict the winners of the World Cup. Some trusted expert opinion, others believed in superstition, and many still remember Paul the Octopus, who became famous for correctly predicting the outcome of a match during the 2010 World Cup.Now, a group of statisticians have used artificial intelligence to make their predictions for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A research team led by statistics professor Achim Zelis built a machine learning model and simulated the entire tournament 100,000 times to see which team had the best chance of lifting the trophy.Spain has emerged as the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, reports The Independent. The AI model gives them a 14.5% chance of becoming champions.England and France are second with 12.4 percent chances, followed by Germany with 11.2 percent. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal have been given an 8.9% chance of winning the title, while Lionel Messi’s Argentina have an 8.2% chance.How did AI predict?The researchers looked at a wide range of information before making their predictions.He studied how teams have performed in recent years. In addition, he considered the odds of the betting market and assessed the quality of the players. And all this information was then fed into the machine learning system.The model then calculated the probabilities of different outcomes in each match. He estimated not only which team was more likely to win, but also how many goals each side could score.Using these possibilities, the researchers simulated every game of the tournament, including extra time and penalty shootouts, following FIFA’s official rules.Why is there no clear favorite?The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest ever with 48 teams instead of 32.With more teams and an extra knockout round, there’s more room for surprises. A single upset can completely change the course of a tournament, which is why the top contenders are separated by just a few percentage points.What are the prospects for America?The United States, one of the tournament’s hosts, is given a strong 78 percent chance of advancing from the group stage and reaching the round of 32.However, once the knockout rounds begin, the challenge becomes tougher. According to simulations, the US has only a one percent chance of winning the World Cup on home soil.The researchers were quick to point out that football doesn’t always follow the numbers. Predictions are based on probability, not certainty. Upsets and surprises are part of what makes the World Cup special.Still, if the AI model is correct, Spain currently have the best chance of lifting football’s biggest prize in 2026.
