With 15 games left in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs and DC are barely hanging in there. RCB, SRH and GT will have to do very poorly from here to miss the playoffs and PBKS are also in a good position to get there despite Monday’s defeat. CSK and RR have a better chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR have little chance. There are 32,768 possible combinations of outcomes left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.
We look at the possibilities:
- RCB have an 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points (including possible ties for one or more of those spots) and a 59.4% chance of finishing in the top two.
- SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points are marginally lower at 88.1% and they have a 59% chance of finishing in the top two.
- GT have an 88.2% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points but their chances of finishing first or second, alone or combined, are 60% higher than both RCB and SRH.
- Monday’s loss pushes PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four on points to 64.4% and they have just a 28.2% chance of finishing in the top two.
- At 53.8%, CSK have a better than even chance of finishing in the top four but only a 22% chance of finishing in the top two.
- RR has a slightly lower 53.6% chance of finishing in the top four and only an 18.5% chance of occupying one of the top two slots.
- KKR have a 13.5% chance of making it to the last four but can now finish in the top two in terms of points, albeit with only a 3.7% chance.
- With Monday’s win, DC keeps their hopes of making the playoffs alive, but only with a 3.2% chance. They can finish third by tying anywhere between two and four other teams.
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 32,768 possible combinations of outcomes and 15 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of those teams finished in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team individually or jointly in the top two. For example, RCB finished in the top four in 28,980 of the possible combinations of match results, giving an 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four singly or jointly.
